This world is something that we need…Imagine!
Axwell, Bob Sinclar, and Featuring singer Ron Carroll
Axwell, Bob Sinclar, and Featuring singer Ron Carroll
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For some of us the inauguration of Barack Obama ushered in the potential for an era of liberal progress, of recovery from the dark clouds of George W. Bush… illegal wars, reactionary social policy, and economic destruction.
The republican party nomination process stimulated my presaging fear of tumult as I witnessed enthusiastic applause for the proposed destruction / elimination of women’s’ rights, civil and marriage rights, health care access, criminalized physical expressions of hate, and responsible stewardship of earth’s resources.
While I know that I am not alone in my liberal desires for a more progressive and better nation, it sure feels a lot lonelier.
As I contemplated my sense of alienation and just how far I am away from the American political norm, a battery of political spectrum tests proved that, indeed, I am a Liberal Elite in a right wing, conservative nation…and it is not a good feeling.
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel crossed traditional bounds and now campaigns vigilantly for her center-right colleague, current French President Nicolas Sarkozy, as the beleaguered French president has fallen behind in polls against his rival socialist candidate. Merkel intends to defend center-right policies and the German economic model in France, as she attempts to implement the model across all of the European Union.
Francois Hollande, socialist challenger for the French presidency, has honed his general opposition to the German-led fiscal discipline treaty under EU member states’ consideration by outlining the concrete changes he would like to see made to the document. Hollande suggests that the proposed fiscal discipline treaty imposes too much of Berlin’s belt-tightening policy (Austerity) on the EU and lacks growth initiatives.
Recently, Chancellor Merkel appeared in a joint television interview with the French president, who has fully aligned himself with German economic thinking, and said she would support him “whatever he does.” And what he does is want to transform France into the industrial economic miracle of Germany. The question is begged: why the economic self-doubt by France’s President?
President Sarkozy wants France to become more like Germany, and in a recent speech he made 15 positive references to the German economic model.
Unlike France, he argued, Germany had reformed its economy and was reaping the rewards of improved competitiveness and superior economic performance. He lamented the alleged decline in French industrial prowess and praised Germany’s success at defending its industrial base in the context of globalization.
Sarkozy is certainly right that Germany is a more industrial economy than France. The share of the French economy accounted for by industrial output is as low as in Britain (a country Sarkozy likes to deride as “having no industry”) and lower than the US. Germany’s share of world export markets has also held up remarkably well over the last ten years, whereas France’s has fallen steadily.
Nonetheless, the relative size of a country’s industrial sector may or may not have implications for its economic success. Observe Italy, with a comparably-sized industrial sector to Germany, but which is readily the worst performing large developed economy. Japan also has a very large industrial sector yet has stagnated most of the last 20 years.
The “Hartz reforms” of former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s government undercut the bargaining power of labor, and succeeded in “pricing workers back into employment,” albeit often at much lower wages than previously known in Germany. Adjusted for inflation, employee wages fell by 2 percent from 2002 to 2011, compared with a rise of over 10 percent in France. In turn, this reduction in relative wages impacted private consumption negatively, and over the same period, private consumption grew by just 4 percent in Germany, against 17 percent growth in France.
To the extent that Germany has become more “competitive,” it is not because of German superior productivity growth but rather because of wage restraint — and the resultant reduction of wage-based inflation. As a result of such income compression, Germany’s real effective exchange rate within the eurozone fell by 17 percent between 1999 and 2011, making its exports much more price competitive. Meanwhile, for the same period, France’s real effective exchange rate rose by 4.4 percent.
Germany’s internal devaluation contributed to a big divergence in the two countries’ relative trade positions. Whereas ten years ago France and Germany both had small current account surpluses, France is now running a deficit of around 3 percent of GDP, while Germany is running a surplus of 6 percent. To be truthful, such an effect was indeed the goal of Germany’s labor market changes… but at the expense of workers’ incomes, domestic consumption, and the social condition.
France and Germany have similar levels of public debt, at just over 80 percent of GDP. Concerning the yearly budget deficit, whereas Germany’s fell from 4.3 percent in 2010 to a little over 1 percent of GDP in 2011, France’s yearly deficit came in at 5.7 percent (down from 7.1 percent in 2010). Sure, France has need to strengthen its public finances, but mitigating factors deserve acknowledgement.
First, the French government has been more concerned with maintaining growth in domestic demand than its German counterpart.
Second, over a third of the difference in the size of the deficits in 2011 was accounted for by much higher levels of public investment in France — 3.2 percent of GDP compared with 1.7 percent in Germany (the second-lowest level in the EU).
Neglecting public investment harms the overall good of the nation eventually, though… witness the crumbling infrastructure of the United States. Germany’s rail system has already fallen greatly behind that of France.
French President Sarkozy is right to be concerned about France’s economic performance. In common with most of Europe, the country seems stuck. Nonetheless, the second largest economy in Europe must draw the right conclusions from what has happened within its neighbor, Germany.
Yes, France absolutely must reform its labor market — retirement age is too young and it is too difficult to terminate non-performers. Currently, those with full-time jobs earn employee rights and generous entitlements — the hallmarks of an advanced society — even while these same benefits are a disincentive for firms to hire people on a full-time basis and relegate the youth to a tenuous reliance on temporary jobs.
However, Germany’s labor market reforms might not be the best solution for France… or Europe. Germany has been able to pursue such a strategy only as other EU countries have not. Should France attempt to emulate German wage constraint, it would prove a largely zero-sum game as the move would depress domestic demand in France and across Europe, in the process worsening the eurozone crisis and leading to more layoffs.
Certainly, Germany offers many examples for France and other EU countries to follow. Still, a large industrial sector and a big trade surplus are not the exclusive indicators of economic ability and capacity. Note that, for every country running a trade surplus, another must run a deficit, and it shall never be otherwise.
Economist Milton Friedman argued that trade deficits were not intrinsically bad. Who, he asked, has done better when one trades 10 dollars worth of goods in exchange for 15 dollars worth of goods? The one nation sold more of what it produced (which employs labor and expands business) while the other got more for less. The answer as to who has the advantage is unclear.
France has its share of weaknesses, but in important aspects, the French model — where the economy is largely propelled by domestic demand, high productivity, and extended leisure time — holds out better prospects for a return to economic growth across the eurozone than does the German economic model, I must protest.
Leave a comment | tags: french president nicolas sarkozy, german chancellor angela merkel | posted in banking, business, economics, finance, income taxes, Political, Social Security, unemployment
Here’s just one recent example that raised my gall:
Dorsey D. Farr, co-founder and head of investment strategy and portfolio management for French Wolf & Farr, told the Rotary Club of Buckhead in Atlanta at a January 30, 2012 luncheon that ongoing labor market weakness, household deleveraging, consumption growth and sovereign debt will continue to be tough issues with which to tangle in 2012.
Well, fair enough, and who could argue with the assessment?
But then Farr went on to say with professorial certainty…
“…defeating the debt monster requires a revision to the social contract that created it. That takes either enormous political will or a crisis.”
As Bill Clinton left office, we ran budget surpluses and were well on the path to paying off the total US debt. So, what we really want to look at is what caused the dramatic change in direction, the rising yearly budget deficits, and the yawning total US debt after Clinton… meaning W. Bush and Obama.
First… the social contracts for Social Security have run surpluses and helped to fund the deficit spending… not contributed to the deficits.
Moreover, doing absolutely nothing but following the law, Social Security and associated social spending will not and cannot contribute to the deficits, as Social Security may only spend what money it has and takes in. Thus, when fifteen to twenty years from now it is out of excess cash, it can only pay out to retirees the amount of money raised each year from Social Security taxes.
All this means is that given no other changes, future retirees will see a somewhat reduced monthly payout — NOT a stoppage of payout… NOT any deficit spending…
OK… none of that causes or contributes to the deficit or debt, so I’m still lost as to how the Social Contract led to our deficits and unsustainable debt or threatens the debt future, Mr Farr.
So, Mr Farr, let’s see where since Clinton our deficits and the burgeoning debt originated:
Humm, well, I grant that the Part D Medicare Drug benefit that was not initially funded properly contributed to the debt and is part of a social contract. That means that of the $15 Trillion total US debt, $5 Trillion came from W. Bush in non-social contract spending!
Bottom line: W. Bush’s non-social contract spending and tax cuts caused one-third of our total US debt… not, sir, as you and other Republicans nonchalantly propound.
One complaint of the current debt situation is that it is 100% of yearly GDP. History has shown this amount to be a drag on economic growth and the overall financial health of a nation. What has been deemed historically supportable is a US debt level of 62-65%.
Well, take out W. Bush’s non-social contract deficit and debt contributing contributions, and you have a $10 Trillion debt against a $15 Trillion economy… or 66%!
Wow, so the un-sustainability of our US debt is NOT from social contract spending but from Bush’s absurd tax cuts, two unfunded wars (Iraq and Afghanistan), non-defense discretionary spending, and the effects of his crashing the economy!
Mr Farr, get a grip and do your research… do not just assume that because you’re conservative and Republican that your pontifications are granted truth.
As once practitioners and the ill, alike, advocated blood-letting and leeching to cure sickness and disease — draining vital life fluid and energy from the frail and weak… so today must society suffer self-imposed and popular austerity to cure an anemic economy. In both times, the hope was that the patient didn’t die from the cure.
In our dystopian world today, Republicans propose drastic budget cuts to the social contract that in no way contributed to our current debt problem. Yes, in a world where 70% of the economy is consumer driven, conservatives propose starving the consumer of cash by reneging on pre-agreed social programs and austerity.
Good luck with that.
Hope I live through it! Hope most of us patients live through it, too. As for the bloodletters and their supporters, ah, not so much : )
2 comments | tags: conservative republican, debt monster, social contracts | posted in banking, business, economics, finance, income taxes, Political, Social Security, Socio-Political, unemployment, universal health insurance
As I recover from my own very serious spinal surgery and appreciate to my very core that the $100,000+ cost is covered by insurance…
I also contemplate the human situation after learning that my Aunt’s current chemotherapy treatments are covered 80% by insurance, with her and my Uncle left to pick up the balance…
And, I think how fortunate I am that my Life-Partner’s employer affords me the benefit of complete health insurance at my time of need…
And I appreciate how fortunate my Aunt and Uncle are to have the financial success in life such that their massive “out-of-pocket” chemo expenses are afforded by themselves.
Then my heart wrenches to think what would each of our lives be like had we not had the health care access life and circumstance afforded us.
I don’t have to look far, for those harmed by our inequitable and deficient system stand front and center as stark reminder…
… and plead for recovery, that a better system be established:
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A group of several hundred activists decided to stay in the park past the 11pm closing time and risked arrest.
Day two began Saturday morning as chilly and groggy members of the protest group Occupy Atlanta emerged from their tents in Woodruff Park and then set about planning the day’s activities.
Occupy Together is a new, young, and vital movement that is emerging in major US cities around the nation. They call themselves the ninety-nine percent that has been left behind and left out, while the one percent control vast amounts of wealth and took even more during the great transfer of wealth in 2008.
Prior to the current economic crisis, Wall Street ran amuck, without regulations, and the banks gambled away their resources in a frenzy of blind greed never before seen. Everyone lost except the CEO’s and upper echelon of the corporate world… and the politicians beholden to these interests.
The “We Are The 99%” movement members are aware that most of our elected representatives primarily represent the interests of the rich and powerful and… not the people. During the General Assembly, a crowd of about seven hundred people encircled the facilitators.
The General Assembly passed out their draft of demands and read their preamble.
We hold this truth to be self-evident that the 99% deserve equal rights, equal protections, equal access and equal opportunity as the 1% who benefit disproportionately from the current system. We therefore freely assemble to assert our rights and demands:
1. We demand greater democratic control in all spheres of life, from the home to the government, from the economy to the workplace. It is a moral, logical and political imperative that people should be in control of their own lives to the greatest extent possible.
2. We deserve an economic system that meets human needs, reduces economic inequality, shrinks the income gap, and doesn’t reward decisions that have a negative impact on society.
3. We recognize that the market will not regulate itself. What is good for profit is not always good for people or the environment.
4. We assert the right of every human being to adequate shelter, food, clothing, hygiene and other basic necessities.
5. We assert the right of every individual to adequate protection from the economic uncertainties of old age, accident, unemployment and other hardship.
6. We denounce all predatory lending and fraudulent banking practices and demand accountability.
7. We recognize that no society should allocate more resources to warfare than to the public good.
8. We demand a more democratic, publicly representative and accountable media.
9. We insist that the internet is a basic human right and as such should remain absolutely free and neutral.
10. We assert our right to public spaces and our right to freely inhabit them because they are essential to democracy and our right to assemble.
11. We denounce a criminal justice and for-profit prison system that relies on mass incarceration, especially when it reinforces the marginalization and disenfranchisement of people.
… I guess the republican likes of Herman Cain who stated that if these protestors were not successful, if these protestors were losing their homes, if these protestors lost and couldn’t find new jobs… that it is their own fault, and they are just jealous of those superior persons who have succeeded.
The Occupy groups’ liberal causes have drawn criticism from a variety of sources, particularly conservative politicians. U.S. House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., for example, called the gatherings “mobs.”
But liberal and well respected Democrat U.S. Rep. John Lewis, R-Ga., attended Friday night’s rally in a show of support and asked to speak to the group. The assembly voted against it, however, and Lewis left without addressing the group.
The movement protestors stated that they did not want politicians co-opting their grass-roots efforts. They announced: “We are not Republicans, Democrats or any other party. We are the people, and we have found our voice.”
1 comment | posted in business, Civil & Human Rights, economics, health insurance, income taxes, liberalism, Political, progressivism, Social Security, Socio-Political, unemployment, universal health insurance
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Adapted From The Commentary By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
“The U.S. economy appears to be coming apart at the seams,” warned Columbia Prof. Robert Lieberman earlier this year in Foreign Affairs.
Now, over at Foreign Policy magazine, Josh Rogin warns: “This Fight Ain’t Over: Think the debt ceiling gridlock was ugly? Congress is just getting warmed up. Here are eight more foreign-policy battles right around the corner,” when they get back to sinking the economic recovery even deeper this fall.
All this was punctuated last week by the one-day 513-point market drop, S&P’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating on Friday, as well as the 634-point drop in the stock market yesterday, Monday… and all the implications toward a double-dip recession.
Another Foreign Policy expert, James Taub, warns of what the “debt-ceiling deal tells us about the Tea Party’s grim vision of American power.”
There’s a disaster ahead, Taub writes: “All Guns, No Butter … depleting the national treasury to pay for the military … when many Americans want to reduce the role of government at home and especially abroad, the debt deal just concluded is likely to preserve the country’s hypertrophied defense budget, at least if congressional Republicans get their way.”
Mitch McConnell, the GOP’s Darth Vader, is doing just that, doubling down on his vow to make certain Obama is a one-term president, intentionally ignoring the collateral damage, killing economic recovery.
How? Ol’ Mitch is already sabotaging the new congressional debt “super-committee,” vowing to appoint only Republicans who have signed Grover Norquist’s “no new taxes” pledge.
Expect more deadlocks as economists warn that recovery is impossible without new revenues.
Beyond toxic nondemocratic pledges on taxation, America really is “coming apart at the seams.”
Both parties are to blame:
Politics sabotage economy
Yes folks, our politicians really are out of control, utterly unable to manage the economy. They’re irrational, and worse, clueless and myopic in economics.
No surprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI:DJIA) crashed 513 points in one day last week and by 634 points on Monday. Nor a surprise that pundits are pointing to high-tech multiples, warning of a new dot-com crash and double-dip recession, as well as a collapse in commodities, in emerging markets and endless debt problems for Europe.
The WARNING, in short, is that we’re headed into a perfect storm rivaling the disastrous political insanity of the 1930s that prolonged the depression, driving the economy into far reaching global problems that added fuel to an irrational zeitgeist and world war.
Over the past decade we predicted the 2000 crash, the 2008 meltdown and the short-lived 2009 rally, and now it seems quite clear that future historians will indeed look back on the 2011-20 decade as the “Worst Decade in American History.” Worse than the “Great Depression” of the 1930s. Totally predictable, totally denied.
Early this year we made 10 predictions of a chain of events that would reach a critical mass and consume America in a torrent of “creative destruction,” finally crippling • our too-greedy-to-fail monetary/banking system, • our capitalism for the super-rich and • our corrupt political system.
The recent debt-ceiling deal is a wild red flag, warning that it’ll be much worse for a long time.
Dead ahead…
So here’s an update of my 10 annual predictions, a year-by-year look at a decade of economic battles between the haves and have-nots, with no room for compromise between the three ideologies destroying our nation from within. The “wealth gap,” the greed, the entitlements, the hostilities are now so entrenched, compromise is impossible.
Only a catastrophic 1929-style collapse of capitalism, democracy and a descent into economic hell will force America to restructure.
Here’s how it will unfold in the coming 10 years:
2011: Wall Street’s super-rich control Washington
Thanks to the conservative takeover of America’s so-called democracy over the past three decades, from Reagan to Obama, our activist Supreme Court delivered the coup de grace into America’s psyche last year, overturning long-established precedent giving rich owners of zombie corporations the same rights as live citizens. That decision would have gotten a failing grade in my constitutional-law class back at the University of Virginia.
2012: Super-rich solidify absolute power over our political system
That bizarre Supreme Court decision legalized political bribery. Now, billions pass through lobbyists to politicians with one goal: a promise that every politician vote in line with their ideology. Wealth rules. America is no longer a democracy, not even a plutocracy. Today our middle class is in a rapid trickle down into Third World status, while the rich get richer and the “gap” between the super-rich and the rest steadily widens. It is now irrelevant who wins the 2012 race, because money corrupts and Obama is already a puppet of this system favoring lobbyists and wealthy donors.
2013: Pentagon’s global commodity wars accelerate
During the Bush presidency, Fortune analyzed a classified Pentagon report predicting “climate could change radically and fast. That would be the mother of all national-security issues.” Billions of new people spread unrest worldwide as “massive droughts turn farmland into dust bowls and forests to ashes.” Most disconcerting, from the Pentagon report, “by 2020 there is little doubt that something drastic is happening … an old pattern could emerge; warfare defining human life.” Trapped in denial, political leaders will chose war over cooperation.
2014: Global population exploding, rapidly wasting resources
America’s “conspiracy of the super-rich” drains trillions from middle-class taxpayers. The invested super-rich see global population growth exploding by 100 million annually not as a drain on scarce commodities, but as tool to get richer through free-market globalization, ignoring the tragedies triggered as the population climbs to 10 billion — all demanding more of the world’s limited, nonrenewable resources. In the end, all will be demanding payback for our failures to heed warnings of environmentalists like Bill McKibben: “It might be too late. The science is settled, the damage has already begun.” We can’t save the planet.
2015: ‘Gilded Age’ explodes America’s ‘Global Empire’
Kevin Phillips warned in “Wealth and Democracy” that around the time of the Pentagon’s prediction of WWIII in 2020: “Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt and ultimately burning themselves out.”
Similarly, financial historian Niall Ferguson, author of “Colossus: The Rise and Fall of The American Empire,” warned that we deceive ourselves, thinking “about the political process in seasonal, cyclical terms.”
2016: Reaganomics self-destructs; crashes come
“But what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arrhythmic?” asks Ferguson. “What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly,” too rapid to respond in time? The new GOP president ignores the lessons of history, like Jared Diamond’s warnings in “Collapse”: “One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society’s demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak in population, wealth and power.”
2017. Middle-class revolution: Buffett’s ‘rich class’ loses
The seeds were planted years ago. Warren Buffett saw the revolution coming: “There’s class warfare, all right, but it’s my class, the rich class, that’s making war, and we’re winning.” After the 2016 presidential election, political rage explodes into a new civil war. The income “gap” pops a bubble, there’s economic collapse and riots spread against another bailout of our “too-greedy-to-fail” banks. New depression ignites class rebellion.
2018. The Fed and Wall Street collapse, Glass-Steagall reinstated
Diamond says he’s a “cautious optimist:” Leaders need “the courage to practice long-term thinking, make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions.” They delay, fail to act boldly. This crisis triggers a cultural revolution. History tells us most leaders act by short-term self-interest, not long-term public interests, especially politicians funded by billionaires who can’t see past quarterly earnings, year-end bonuses, the next election.
2019: Global commodity wars spread, killing millions, wasting trillions
More than half our federal budget goes to the Pentagon’s war machine, limiting America’s fiscal and monetary policies. In this context, new commodity wars are ignited by an accelerating global population against a decline in the world’s scarce resources. That also forces a total rethinking of the balance between spending to protect against external enemies and a rapid deterioration of domestic programs: employment, education, health care, retirement.
2020. America’s first woman president, patriarchal dominance ends
It is clear that patriarchy — male dominance of world culture, politics and economics throughout history — has failed, bringing the world to the brink of total destruction.
Why do male leaders fail? Jeremy Grantham’s firm GMO manages $108 billion. He predicted the 2008 meltdown and now warns: Male leaders are emotional, “impatient … management types who focus on what they are doing this quarter or this annual budget.” Leadership “requires more people with a historical perspective who are more thoughtful and more right-brained.” Yet “we end up with an army of left-brained immediate doers,” which guarantees that “every time we get an outlying, obscure event that has never happened before in history, they are always to miss it,” as in 2000, 2008, 2012, 2016 and in 2020.
In the coming post-capitalism America…
Grantham’s research suggests that women leaders will naturally emerge not just because the male brain is a short-term saboteur. The bigger reason is that women’s brains have evolved naturally as superior long-term thinkers. Brain researchers tell us 75% of men are short-term left-brain thinkers, while 75% of women tend to have strong right-brain traits as forward-thinkers, more aware of the future, the big picture, with a sense of future consequences, peacemakers rather than gamer-players.
– Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
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